Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.043526 0.049168 0.055435 0.062941 0.071730 0.081741 0.094076
2026-02-01 0.033538 0.040227 0.048229 0.058606 0.071849 0.088378 0.110880
2026-02-08 0.027899 0.035257 0.044658 0.057756 0.075874 0.100571 0.137715
2026-02-15 0.023643 0.031307 0.041695 0.057168 0.080280 0.114631 0.171810
2026-02-22 0.020541 0.028398 0.039654 0.057526 0.086308 0.133001 0.219451
2026-03-01 0.017985 0.025858 0.037727 0.057735 0.092388 0.153704 0.280399
2026-03-08 0.015536 0.023105 0.035036 0.056253 0.095515 0.170883 0.344184
2026-03-15 0.013091 0.020009 0.031317 0.052335 0.093470 0.178222 0.392773
2026-03-22 0.011740 0.018488 0.029966 0.052387 0.099168 0.203886 0.501867
2026-03-29 0.010763 0.017455 0.029297 0.053616 0.107823 0.240325 0.669512
2026-04-05 0.009778 0.016271 0.028170 0.053729 0.114262 0.275043 0.866833
2026-04-12 0.008891 0.015145 0.026978 0.053479 0.119948 0.311359 1.113656
2026-04-19 0.007983 0.013880 0.025363 0.052067 0.122671 0.342102 1.387583
2026-04-26 0.007104 0.012567 0.023462 0.049623 0.122021 0.362752 1.653801
2026-05-03 0.006564 0.011850 0.022694 0.049758 0.128944 0.415488 2.210291
2026-05-10 0.006092 0.011211 0.022003 0.049955 0.136346 0.476908 2.994720
2026-05-17 0.005721 0.010735 0.021599 0.050836 0.146541 0.560328 4.259153
2026-05-24 0.005375 0.010269 0.021147 0.051501 0.156510 0.654131 6.093176
2026-05-31 0.004972 0.009636 0.020215 0.050603 0.160586 0.723490 8.087653
2026-06-07 0.004489 0.008777 0.018629 0.047454 0.154844 0.732878 9.290140
2026-06-14 0.004237 0.008409 0.018200 0.047747 0.163407 0.843257 13.493057
2026-06-21 0.004058 0.008183 0.018096 0.049055 0.177192 1.011671 21.741305
2026-06-28 0.003846 0.007860 0.017699 0.049332 0.186695 1.166585 33.402782